RBNZ February 2026 OCR announcement: Rates are on hold - but markets are already moving

The RBNZ February 2026 OCR announcement is set to release its next Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision on Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 2:00pm NZT. This announcement comes at a time of ongoing global and domestic economic uncertainty and is relevant for anyone with a mortgage, savings, investments, or plans to buy property. While the general expectation is that the RBNZ will hold the OCR steady at this meeting, the accompanying commentary, particularly around the future path of interest rates is expected to be closely watched by markets.

The OCR is New Zealand’s main interest rate tool and plays a key role in influencing borrowing costs and returns on savings across the economy. The RBNZ’s mandate is to keep inflation between 1% and 3% over the medium term, and the latest data shows consumer price inflation sitting at around 3.1%, slightly above the top of that target range. At its last meeting in November, the Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 25 basis points, but signalled that any further easing would likely be limited. Markets interpreted this messaging as relatively hawkish, which led to an increase in wholesale interest rates and a key reason we’ve seen banks lift rates on many longer-term fixed mortgages despite the OCR being lower.

From a domestic perspective, the OCR currently sits at 2.25%, its lowest level in years, following a series of cuts throughout 2025 aimed at supporting a weak economy and stimulating growth. Economic activity remains patchy and unemployment has continued to edge higher, although there are early signs that demand may begin to improve. A growing number of economists believe the Reserve Bank may need to consider raising interest rates later in 2026 if inflation proves more persistent than expected, with financial markets already pricing in the possibility of rate increases by the middle of the year.

Importantly, the RBNZ does not make decisions in isolation. Central banks around the world are grappling with similar challenges around inflation, growth, and financial stability. Looking internationally, including just across the Tasman, provides a useful reminder of how difficult it can be to bring inflation back under control once it becomes entrenched. These global dynamics influence wholesale funding costs, exchange rates, and ultimately the interest rates offered to borrowers and savers in New Zealand.

Most analysts agree that the most likely outcome at next week’s meeting is for the Reserve Bank to leave the OCR unchanged, while waiting for clearer evidence on how inflation and economic conditions are tracking. The focus will therefore be on the tone of the statement and how future policy decisions are framed. Some commentators expect “hold-for-now” messaging that keeps options open, while others warn that rising wholesale and swap rates could continue to place upward pressure on longer-term lending rates even if the OCR remains low.

For borrowers, an unchanged OCR would likely mean relatively stable repayments in the near term for those on floating rates. However, for anyone fixing or refixing a mortgage, banks are already factoring in less room for future rate cuts, and the potential for increases later in 2026, which makes timing and structure particularly important. For savers and investors, lower cash rates can continue to weigh on term deposit returns, but opportunities may exist elsewhere depending on individual goals and timeframes.

When the announcement is released on 18 February, key things to watch will include the OCR decision itself, the Reserve Bank’s forward guidance, its commentary on inflation trends, and its updated economic and interest rate forecasts. These elements often have a greater impact on markets than the headline rate decision alone.

As always, everyone’s situation is different, and how these developments affect you will depend on your personal finances. For tailored advice, speaking with your financial adviser is the best next step.